D.Rucker ultimately corrected his tweet once commenters pointed out the misquote.Through Twitter,he informed me that he had taken the line from a Washington Times op—ed by Richard Rahn，a senior fellow at the Cato Institute.When I contacted Rahn’s office.a press representative acknowledged that Rahn had copied the quote from other bloggers and columnists;the fabricated sentence appears in articles at reason.corn and texasgopvote.corn.The fabricated line seems to have been inserted around 2011.but the original article has been circulating online since 2007.

　　E. The statement about rising sea levels aside，1 922 really was a strange period in the Svalbard archipelago.the area described by the weather report.The islands lie halfway between Norway and the North Pole,at a latitude that puts them several hundred miles farther north than Barrow,alaska.“The Arctic seems to be warming up.”the report read.In August of that year,a geologist near the island of Spitsbergen sailed as far north as eighty-one degrees.twenty.nine minutes in ice-free water.This was highly unusual.The previous several summers had likewise been warrn.Seal populations had moved farther north，and formerly unseen stretches of coast were now accessible.

　　F.What are we to take from this historical evidence?A central tenet for Rucker and his colleagues is mat today’s sea.ice retreat。warming surface temperatures，and similar observations are short-lived anomalies of a kind that often happened in the past—and that overzealous scientists and gullible media are quick to drum up crises where none exist.Favorite examples include numerous newspaper articles from the nineteen.seventies that predicted the advent of a new ice age.In fact.it's possible to find articles from nearly every decade of the past century that seem to imply information about the climate that turned out to be premature or wrong.

　　G.The 1922 article has been quoted repeatedly by Rucker’s comrades-in-arms since its 2007 rebirth in the Washington Times.For nearly that long，scientists have been objecting.Gavin Schmidt，a climate modeler and the deputy director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies，points out that what was an anomaly in 1922 is now the norm：the waters near Spitsbergen are clear of ice at the end of every summer.More important，long-term temperature and sea-ice records indicate that the dramatic sea-ice retreat in the early nineteen.twenties was short-lived.It also occurred locally around svalbard—the unusual conditions didn’t even encompass the whole Norwegian Sea，let alone the rest of the Arctic.

　　H. 0ver the weekend，after retracting his previous tweet，Rucker posted a link to a blog item about a different article.this one a 1932 New York Times story.The eighty-year-old headline reads，“The Next Great Deluge Forecast By Science：Melting Polar Ice Caps to Raise the Level of the Seas and Flood the Continents.”That one sounded juicy,and，indeed，this time the text was correct：that really is what the headline said.Ironically,the lcad researcher cited in the piece was a German scientist named Alfred Wegener,who has sometimes been considered a hero of climate-change deniers for a completely different reason.Wegener is known for proposing the phenomenon of continental drift starting around the First Wbrid War,The idea was ridiculed before gaining acceptance in the nineteen-sixties，once

　　ample evidence had been amassed.Wegener’s lifc story,then，is used to support the idea that the small number of researchers in the field who downplay the risk of anthropogenic climate change will one day prevail.

　　I.In reality,the potential for anthropogenic global warming was being discussed earlier than continental drift.and took even longer to gain wide acceptance.The versatile Professor Wegener was a geophysicist and polar researcher who spent much of his career studying meteorology in Greenland，and trying to unlock the secrets of the Earth’s past.His elevated place in the current climate-change debate is

　　abstracted from history.

　　J.In any case，it’s not clear that the bloggers linking to the 1932 article read much beyond the headline.Thc article does discuss a collapse of the ice sheets that would raise sea levels by more than a hundred feet—but it says that event lies thirty to forty thousand years in the future.There’s nothing wrong with examining old newspaper articles for clues about climate conditions in the past.Legitimate climate researchers look at historical documents of all kinds.However,a good-faith effort to arrive at the truth would not rely on cherry-picking catchy headlines.It would require considering the context and looking at all the evidence.At the very least.it wouldn’t allow for deliberate distortions.A prediction that the ice caps might melt by the year 42，000 is hardly all example of climate alarmism.

　　46.Unlike melting ice in the glass，the melting sea ice cannot easily raise sea level.

　　47.Rucker maintains that the climate.change is just a terrible fantasy of the left-wing or even a totally distrustful matter.

　　48.It is fair to search for every piece of evidence to approach the truth without distortion.

　　49.As for Rucker,the clear purpose of tweeting this quotation is to laugh at the articles about climate change.

　　50.The various unusual phenomena about climate change are merely non-exist alarms claimed by the scientists and media，would be short-lived.

　　51.The drastic sea-ice melt occurred around Svalbard was only local and limited.

　　52.It is normal for the waters at northern latitude 8 1 degrees，29 minutes to be covered with ice.

　　53.It is embraced that the number of climate-change researchers will be multiplied one day.

　　54.It is ironic for the leading figure of climate-change opponents to quote this piece.

　　55.In reality,the universal information in articles about climate change is eventually proved to be unbelievable.

　　46.Unlike melting ice in the glass，the melting sea ice can not easily raise sea level.與杯中的融冰不同，海中的融冰不會(huì)使海面快速升高。

　　47.Rucker maintains that the climate change is just a terrible fantasy of the left-wing or even a totally distrustful matter.洛克認(rèn)為氣候變化的論點(diǎn)不過是左派的糟糕的幻想，甚至根本就是一個(gè)騙局。

　　48.Itisfairto searchfor everypiece ofevidence to approach the truth without distortion.努力尋找證據(jù)，真實(shí)地靠近真相，這點(diǎn)是不可爭議的

　　49.As for Rucker,the clear purpose of tweeting this quotation is to laugh at the articles about climate change.洛克微博這條引語的用意很明顯是在嘲笑有關(guān)氣候變化的文章。

　　50.The various unusual phenomena about climate change are merely non.exist alarms claimed by the scientists and media，would be short-lived.各種有關(guān)氣候變化的非正常現(xiàn)象不過是短暫的，是科學(xué)家和媒體所宣稱的，本不存在的危言聳聽。

　　51.The drastic sea-ice melt occurred around Sval bard was only local and limited.發(fā)生在斯瓦爾巴特群島周圍劇烈的海冰融化現(xiàn)象只是局部的。

　　52.It is normal for the waters at northern latitude 81 degrees，29 minutes to be covered with ice.照理說，北緯81度29分的水域應(yīng)該是結(jié)冰的。

　　53.It is embraced that the number of climate-change researchers will be multiplied one day.終有一天，對(duì)氣候變化研究的人員數(shù)量會(huì)不斷增加。

　　54.It is ironic for the leading figure ofclimate-change opponents to quote this piece.作為氣候變化反對(duì)者的英雄人物，引用這篇文章是很諷刺的。

　　55.In reality.the universal information in articles about climate change is eventually proved to be unbelievable.事實(shí)上，大量關(guān)于氣候變化的信息最后都被證實(shí)是不可信的。

　　Section B

　　Directions: In this section, you are going to read a passage with ten statements attached to it. Each statement contains information given in one of the paragraphs. Identify the paragraph from which the information is derived.

　　You may choose a paragraph more than once. Each paragraph is marked with a letter. Answer the questions by marking the corresponding letter on Answer Sheet 2.

　　World Must Adapt to Unknown Climate Future

　　A.There is still great uncertainty about the impacts of climate change，according to the latest report from the Intefgovernmental Panel on Climate Change，released today.So if we are to survive and prosper, rather than trying to fend off specific threats like cyclones，we must build flexible and resilient(有彈性的)societies.

　　B.Today’s report is the second of three instalments(分期連載)of the IPCC’s fifth assessment of climate change.The first instalment，released last year,covered the physical science of climate change.It stated with increased certainty that climate change is happenin9，and that it is the result of humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions.The new report focuses on the impacts of climate change and how to adapt to them.The third instalment，on how to cut greenhouse gas emissions，comes out in April.

　　C.The latest report backs off from some of the predictions made in the previous IPCC report，in 2007.During the final editing process.the authors also retreated from many of the more confident projections from the final draft，leaked last year.The IPCC now says it often cannot predict which specific impacts of climate change—such as droughts，storms or floods——will hit particular places.

　　D.Instead，the IPCC focuses on how people call adapt in the face of uncertainty,arguing that we must become resilient against diverse changes in the climate.“The natural human tendency is to want things to be clear and simple.”says the report’s co-chair Chris Field of the Carnegie Institution for Science in Stanford，Califomia.“And one of the messages that doesn’t just come from the IPCC，it comes from history,is that the future doesn’t ever turn out the way you think it will be.”That means，F(xiàn)ield adds，that‘'being prepared for a wide range of possible futures is iust always smart”.

　　E.Here New Scientist breaks down what is new in the report，and what it means for humanity’s efforts to cope with a changing climate.A companion article，“How climate change will affect where you live”，highlights some of the key impacts that different regions are facing.What has changed in the new IPCC report?

　　F.In essence，the predictions are intentionally vaguer.Much of the firlner language from the 2007 report about exactly what kind of weather to expect，and how changes witl affect people，has been replaced with more cautious statements.The scale and timing of many regional impacts，and even the form of some，now appear uncertain.

　　G.For example，the 2007 report predicted that the intensity of cyclones over Asia would increase by 10to 20 per cent.The new report makes no such claim.Similarly,the last report estimated that climate change would force up to a quarter of a billion Africans into water shortage by the end of this decade.The new report avoids using such firm numbers.

　　H.The report has even watered down many of the more confident predictions that appeared in the lcaked drafts.References to“hundreds of millions”of people being affected by rising sea levels have been removed from the summary,as have statements about the impact of warmer temperatures on crops.“I think it's gone back a bit，”says Jean Palutikof of Griffith University in Brisbane，Queensland，Australia，who worked on the 2007 report.“That may be a good thing.In the fourth [climate assessment]we tried to do things that weren’t really possible and the fifth has sort of rebalanced the whole thing.”

　　So do we know less than we did before?

　　I.Not really,says Andy Pitman of the University of New South Wales in Sydney,Australia.It is just more rigorous language.“Pointing to the sign of the change，rather than the precise magnitude of the change，is scientifically more defensible，”he says.

　　J.We also know more about what we don’t know,says David Karoly at the University of Melbourne.“There is now a better understanding of uncertainties in regional climate proj ections at decadal timescales(時(shí)標(biāo)).”

　　Are we less confident about all the impacts of climate change?

　　K.Not quite.There are still plenty of confident predictions of impacts in the reponv—at least in the draft chapters that were lcaked last year,and which are expected to be roughly the same when they are released later this week.These include more rain in parts ofAfrica，more heatwaves in southem Europe，and more frequent droughts in Australia(see“How climate change will affect where you live”).It also remains clear that the seas are rising.How do we prepare in cases in which there is low confidence about the effects of climate change?

　　L.That’s exactly what this report deals with.In many cases，the uncertainty is a matter of magnitude，so the choices are not hard.“It doesn’t really matter if the car hits the wall at 70 or 80 kilometres an hour,”says Karoly.“You should still wear your seat belt.”So when it comes to sea.1evel rise or heatwaves，the uncertainty does not change what we need to do：build sea walls，use efficient cooling and so forth.

　　M.But in some cases——such as African rainfall，which could go up or down——the models are not giving us great advice.so all we know is that things will change.“We are not certain about the precise nature of regional change，but we are absolutely certain there are going to be profound changes in many regions，”says Pitman.Even then，there are things we can do that will always help.A big one is getting people out of poverty.The report says poverty makes other impacts worse and many suggested adaptations are about alleviating it.The IPCC suggests giving disadvantaged groups more of a voice，helping them move when they need to and strengthening social safety nets.

　　N.What’s more，all countries should diversify their economies，rather than relying on a few main sources of income that could flood or blow ovel Countries should also find ways to become less vulnerable to the current climate variability.That means improving the way they govem resources like water,the report says.

　　O.In short，we must become more resilient.That would be wise even if the climate was stable.Our current infrastructure often cannot deal with the current climate，says Karoly,pointing to events like the recent UK floods.“We don’t have a resilient system now,even in extremely well developed countries.”

　　46.Focusing on the clue of climate change instead of the severity of climate effects is scientifically more reasonable.

　　47.IPCC’s new report has removed some of the predictions that appeared in the former one released in2007.

　　48.One of the lessons both IPCC and history has taught us is that future never appears as you expect it to be.

　　49.The IPCC’s latest report has weakened many firmer projections written in the leaked drafts.

　　50.The first of IPCC’s three instalments has focused on the current climate conditions and the main reason for those conditions.

　　51.The most important thing for us to do is to get people rich.

　　52.Sometimes the uncertainty is just about the extent of climate effects，thus the choices.of what we should doisquite easy.

　　53.Countries must make their economies varied and improve the way of controlling the recourses in order to beRer deal with climate change.

　　54.The new IPCC report has replaced some more confident statements from the 2007 report with more careful expressions.

　　55.There are still many of firm statements about the climate effects in the new report，which are generally the same as they were in the draft chapters.

　　46.Focusing on the clue of climate change instead of the severity of climate effects is scientifically more reasonable.主要集中于氣候變化的跡象而不是氣候變化帶來的影響的嚴(yán)重性，在科學(xué)上更有說服力。

　　47.IPCC’s new report has removed some of the predictions that appeared in the former one released in 2007.IPCC的最新報(bào)告中去掉了一些出現(xiàn)在2007年發(fā)布的報(bào)告中的預(yù)測。

　　48.One of the lessons both IPCC and history has taught US is that future never appears as you expect it to be.IPCC和歷史都曾教給我們的教訓(xùn)是，未來絕不會(huì)是你想象的那樣。

　　49.The IPCC’s latest report has weakened many firmer projections written in the leaked drafts.IPCC的最新報(bào)告淡化了許多在泄露的草案中出現(xiàn)的比較肯定的預(yù)測。

　　50.The first of IPCC’s three instalments has focused on the current climate conditions and the main reason for those conditions.IPCC三期連載報(bào)告中的第一份主要講述了當(dāng)前的氣候狀況以及出現(xiàn)這些情況的主要原因。

　　51.The most important thing for us to do is to get people rich.我們要做的最重要的事情就是讓人們變得富有。

　　52.Sometimes the uncertainty is just about the extent of climate effects，thus the choices of what we should do is quite easy.有時(shí)候這種不確定性就只是氣候影響的程度，所以選擇我們應(yīng)當(dāng)做什么還是相當(dāng)簡單的。

　　53.Countries must make their economies varied and improve the way of controlling the recourses in order to better deal with climate change.各國必須使經(jīng)濟(jì)多樣化并且要改善對(duì)資源的管理方法，以更好地應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化。

　　54.The new IPCC report has replaced some more confident statements from the 2007 report with more careful expressions.IPCC的新報(bào)告中去掉了2007年報(bào)告中較為肯定的表述，取而代之的是更加謹(jǐn)慎的表達(dá)。

　　55.There are still many of firm statements about the climate effects in the new report,which are generally the same as they were in the draft chapters.在新的報(bào)告中仍然還有一些與草案章節(jié)中大致相同的肯定表述。