B.Their elders have always told them that education is the best way to equip themselves to thrive in a globalised world. Blue-collar workers will see their jobs outsourced and automated, the familiar argument goes. School dropouts will have to cope with a life of cash-strapped (資金緊張的) insecurity. But the graduate elite will have the world at its feet. There is some evidence to support this view. A recent study from Georgetown University's Centre on Education and the Workforce argues that"obtaining a post-secondary credential ( 證書) is almost always worth it." Educational qualifications are tightly correlated with earnings: an American with a professional degree can expect to pocket $3.6m over a lifetime; one with merely a high- school diploma can expect only $1.3m. The gap between more- and less-educated earners may be widening. A study in 2002 found that someone with a bachelor's degree could expect to earn 75% more over a lifetime than someone with only a high-school diploma. Today the disparity is even greater.

　　C.But is the past a reliable guide to the future? Or are we at the beginning of a new phase in the relationship between jobs and education? There are good reasons for thinking that old patterns are about to change--and that the current recession-driven downturn (衰退) in the demand for Western graduates will morph (改變) into something structural. The strong wind of creative destruction that has shaken so many blue-collar workers over the past few decades is beginning to shake the cognitive elite as well.

　　D.The supply of university graduates is increasing rapidly. The Chronicle of Higher Education calculates that between 1990 and 2007 the number of students going to university increased by 22% in North America, 74% in Europe, 144% in Latin America and 203% in Asia. In 2007 150m people attended university around the world, including 70m in Asia. Emerging economies—specially China--are pouring resources into building universities that can compete with the elite of America and Europe. They are also producing professional- services firms snch as Tata Consulting Services and Infosys that take fresh graduates and turn them into world-class computer programmers and consultants. The best and the brightest of the rich world must increasingly compete with the best and the brightest from poorer countries who are willing to work harder for less money.

　　E. At the same time, the demand for educated labor is being reconfigured (重新配置) by technology, in much the same way that the demand for agricultural labor was reconfigured in the 19th century and that for factory labor in the 20th. Computers can not only perform repetitive mental tasks much faster than human beings. They can also empower amateurs to do what professionals once did: why hire a flesh-and-blood accountant to complete your tax return when Turbotax (a software package ) will do the job at a fraction of the cost? And the variety of jobs that computers can do is multiplying as programmers teach them to deal with tone and linguistic ambiguity.

　　F.Several economists, including Paul Krugman, have begun to argue that post-industrial societies will be characterized not by a relentless rise in demand for the educated but by a great "hollowing out", as mid-level jobs are destroyed by smart machines and high-level job growth slows. David Autor, of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), points out that the main effect of automation in the computer era is not that it destroys blue-collar jobs but that it destroys any job that can be reduced to a routine. Alan Blinder of Princeton University, argues that the jobs graduates have traditionally performed are if anything more "offshorable" than low-wage ones. A plumber or lorry-driver's job cannot be outsourced to India. A computer programmer's can.

　　G. A university education is still a prerequisite for entering some of the great industries, such as medicine, law and academia (學術界), that provide secure and well-paying jobs. Over the 20th century these industries did a wonderful job of raising barriers to entry--sometimes for good reasons (nobody wants to be operated on by a barber) and sometimes for self-interested ones. But these industries are beginning to bend the roles. Newspapers are fighting a losing battle with the blogosphere. Universities are replacing tenure-track professors with non-tenured staff. Law firms are contracting out routine work such as"discovery" (digging up documents relevant to a lawsuit) to computerized-search specialists such as Blackstone Discovery. Even doctors are threatened, as patients find advice online and treatment in Walmart's new health centers.

　　H.Thomas Malone of MIT argues that these changes--automation, globalizafion and deregulation--may be part of a bigger change: the application of the division of labor to brain-work. Adam Smith's factory managers broke the production of pins into 18 components. In the same way, companies are increasingly breaking the production of brain-work into ever tinier slices. TopCoder chops up IT projects into bite-sized chunks and then serves them up to a worldwide workforce of freelance coders.

　　I.These changes will undoubtedly improve the productivity of brain-workers. They will allow consumers to sidestep (規避 ) the professional industries that have extracted high rents for their services. And they will empower many brain-workers to focus on what they are best at and contract out more tedious tasks to others. But the reconfiguration of brain-work will also make life far less cozy and predictable for the next generation of graduates.

　　46. The creative destruction that has happened to blue-collar workers in the past also starts to affect the cognitive elite.

　　47. For the next generation of graduates, life will be far less comfortable and predictable with brain-work reconfigured.

　　48. After computers are taught by programmers to deal with tone and linguistic ambiguity, the variety of jobs they can do will increase dramatically.

　　49. Most school-leavers believe that, despite the huge debts they owe, going to university will increase their chances of getting secure jobs with high salaries.

　　50. Modern companies are more likely to break the production of intellectual work into ever tinier slices.

　　51. A scholar of Princeton University claims that the jobs traditionally taken by graduates are more likely to be offshored than low-wage ones.

　　52. The income gap between an American professional degree holder and an American high-school graduate shows income is closely related to educational qualifications.

　　53. The changes in the division of brain-work will save consumers some high service fees the professional organizations charge.

　　54. Some students have always been told that. to achieve success in a globalised world, it is most advisable to equip themselves with education.

　　55. Emerging economies are providing a lot of resources to build universities to compete with the elite of America and Europe.

　　【參考譯文】

　　大學文憑不再提供鐵飯碗

　　A.發達國家的數百萬高中畢業生將要含淚告別他們的父母，開始全新的大學生活。一些人上大學純粹是出于對學習的熱愛。[49]但大多數畢業生都這樣認為：在大學里待三四年，盡管在這期間會欠下很多債務，卻可以大大增加他們獲得高薪、穩定工作的幾率。

　　B.[54]他們的長輩們常常告誡他們，在這個全球化的世界中，要想使自己有所發展，最好的辦法就是努力學習。人們常說，藍領工人會發現他們的工作被外包和自動化，中途輟學者會過著經濟上無保障的生活，而優秀畢業生則前程似錦。有一些證據支持這種看法。喬治城大學教育和勞動力中心最近的一項研究表明，“獲得高等教育的文憑總是物有所值”。[52]學歷與收入多少息息相關：一位擁有專業學位的美國人有望在一生中轉到360萬美元，而若是僅有高中文憑則只能賺到130萬。文化程度高與文化程度低的人之間的收入差距可能還在擴大。2002年的一項研究發現，有本科學歷的人在一生中會比只有高中學歷的人收入高出75%，而如今二者之間的差距變得更大。

　　C.但是，過去如此，將來也必然如此嗎?還是就業與教育之間的關系即將展開全新的一頁?我們有充分的理由相信，舊模式即將發生改變——目前的經濟衰退使得西方國家對畢業生的需求量有所減小，這會成為一種結構性的變化。[46]在過去幾十年里曾經導致很多藍領工人失去飯碗的創造性毀滅的風暴。現在也開始撼動文化精英了。

　　D.大學畢業生的人數在迅速增加。根據《高等教育編年史》，在1990年到2007年之間，北美的大學生人數增長了22%，歐洲增長了74%，拉美增長了144%，而亞洲則增長了203%。2007年，全球有1.5億大學新生，其中7000萬來自亞洲。[55]新興經濟體，尤其是中國，傾注了眾多資源來建設能與美國和歐洲的頂級學府一爭高下的大學。這些國家還成立諸如塔塔咨詢和印孚瑟斯等專業服務公司來吸納應屆畢業生，并將他們培養成為世界級的電腦程序員和咨詢師。發達國家的頂尖人才必須更加努力地與愿意多勞少得的發展中國家的頂尖人才競爭。

　　E.與此同時，與19世紀對農業勞動力的需求和20世紀對工業勞動力的需求發生的變革一樣，當前由于技術進步，對受過教育的勞動力的需求也正在被重新配置。電腦不僅能以比人類更快的速度完成重復性的思維任務，而且還能夠讓外行去做專業人士的工作：如果Turbotax(一種軟件程序包)能以很低的成本完成納稅申報的話.那何必還要雇傭一名真正的會計來完成這項工作呢?[48]當程序員使電腦能夠處理音調和語言歧義的問題后，電腦能夠完成的工作類別將會激增。

　　F.包括PaulKrugman在內的一些經濟學家認為，隨著中等水平的工作被智能機器取而代之，而高水平的工作增長放緩，后工業化社會對受教育者的需求并不會持續增加，而將會被挖空。麻省理工大學的DavidAutor指出，電腦時代的自動化的主要影響并不是它毀了藍領工作，而是毀了所有能轉化為執行程序的工作。[51]普林斯頓大學的AlanBlinder認為，比起低收入的工作來說，那些傳統意義上由畢業生所從事的工作更可能“被外包”。水管工和貨車司機的工作不可能外包到印度去做，而電腦程序員的工作卻可以。

　　G.在諸如醫藥、法律和學術這類穩定、高薪的高級行業中，大學學歷仍然是至關重要的敲門磚。20世紀以來，這些行業卓有成效地提高了入行門檻，有的是有充分理由的(如：沒有人想要理發師來為他們做手術)，有的則出于自身利益的考慮。然而這些行業也已經開始有所變通。報紙業正在與博客進行一場勝算渺茫的搏斗，大學正在用一些非終身制的員工代替終身教授，律師事務所將諸如“搜查資料”(即搜尋訴訟相關的文件資料)的日常工作包給了類似BlackstoneDiscovery這樣的電腦搜索專家。醫生甚至也受到了威脅，因為患者可以在沃爾瑪的新健康中心進行在線咨詢和治療。

　　H.麻省理工大學的ThomasMalone表示，自動化、全球化和自由化這些變化也許只是更大變革——將勞動分工引入到腦力工作中——的冰山一角。Adam Smith的工廠管理者將大頭針的生產線分成了十八道工序。[50]同樣：如今的企業將腦力工作劃分得超乎以往地細致。TopCoder公司將IT項目分割成塊，然后把這些工作分攤給全球的自由程序員。

　　I.毫無疑問，這些變化將會提高腦力勞動者的生產率，[53]也可以使消費者能夠規避專業性行業收取的一些額的服務費用。而且這將使得許多腦力工作者能夠將精力集中在他們最擅長的領域，而將更多枯燥乏味的工作外包給他人。[47]但是，這種腦力工作的重新整合將使下一代畢業生的生活更加艱辛.也更加變幻莫測。

　　【答案解析】

　　46.C

　　解析：題干意為，過去發生在藍領工人身上的創造性毀滅，現在也開始對文化精英造成影響了。根據題干中的關鍵信息creative destruction、blue—collar和cognitive elite，便可以很快鎖定文中C段。C段最后一句提到，在過去幾十年里曾經導致很多藍領工人失去飯碗的創造性毀滅的風暴，現在也開始撼動文化精英了。由此可知，題干是原文的同義轉述，故答案為C。

　　47.I

　　解析：題干意為，對下一代畢業生來說，由于腦力工作重新整合，他們的生活將會更加艱辛和變幻莫測。注意抓住題干中的關鍵信息for tlle next generation of graduates和predicmble。文中I段最后一句提到，但是，這種腦力工作的重新整合將使下一代畢業生的生活更加艱辛，也更加變幻莫測。由此可見，題干是對原文的同義轉述。故答案為I。

　　48.E

　　解析：題干意為，當程序員教會了電腦處理音調和語言歧義問題后，電腦能夠完成的工作種類將顯著增多。注意抓住題干中的關鍵信息toneandlinguistic ambiguity和mevariety ofjobs。文中E段最后一句提到，當程序員使電腦能夠處理音調和語言歧義的問題后，電腦能夠完成的工作類別將會激增。由此可見，題干是對原文的同義轉述，故答案為E。

　　49.A

　　解析：題干意為，多數畢業生認為，盡管會欠下很多債務，但是上大學會使他們更有可能獲得一份薪水較高的穩定工作。注意抓住題干中的關鍵信息sch001.1eavers、huge debts和chances。文中A段末句提到，大多數畢業生都這樣認為：在大學里待三四年可以大大增加他們獲得高薪、穩定工作的幾率，盡管在這個過程中會欠下很多債務。由此可見，題干是對原文的同義轉述，故答案為A。

　　50.H

　　解析：題干意為，企業越來越傾向于將腦力工作劃分得超乎以往地細致。注意抓住題干中的關鍵信息companies和evertinier slices。文中論及腦力工作分工的內容出現在H段，該段第三句提到，同樣，如今的企業將腦力工作劃分得超乎以往地細致。由此可見，題干是對原文的同義轉述，故答案為H。

　　51.F

　　解析：題干意為，普林斯頓大學的一位學者認為，那些傳統上由畢業生所從事的工作比低薪工作更可能被外包出去。注意抓住題干中的關鍵信息PrincetonUniversity、traditionally和low.wageones。F段倒數第三句提到，普林斯頓大學的AlanBlinder認為，比起低收入的工作來說，畢業生所從事的傳統工作更可能“被外包”。由此可見，題干是對原文的同義轉述，故答案為F。

　　52.B.

　　解析：題干意為，一位擁有專業學位的美國人和僅有高中文憑的美國人之間的收入差距表明，收入與學歷息息相關。注意抓住題干中的關鍵信息gap、professional degree、high—school和educational qualifications。文中論及收入差距的內容出現在B段，該段第七句提到，學歷與收入多少息息相關：一位擁有專業學位的美國人有望在一生中賺到360萬美元，而若是僅有高中文憑則只能賺到130萬。由此可見，題干是對原文的同義轉述，故答案為B。

　　53.I

　　解析：題干意為，腦力工作的細分使消費者能夠規避那些專業機構收取的高額服務費。注意抓住題干中的關鍵信息consumers和professional。文中I段第二句提到，這些變化使消費者能夠規避專業性行業收取的一些高額的服務費用。根據上下文，可知“它們”指的是“腦力工作的細化”。由此可見，題干是對原文的同義轉述，故答案為I。

　　54.B

　　解析：題干意為，學生們常常被告知，要想在這個全球化的世界中取得成功，最好的辦法就是努力學習。注意抓住題干中的關鍵信息a globalised world、equip themselves和education。文中B段第一句提到，長輩們常常告誡他們，在這個全球化的世界中，要想使自己有所發展，最好的辦法就是努力學習。由此可見。題干是對原文的同義轉述，故答案為B。

　　55.D

　　解析：題干意為，新興經濟體正在為建設大學提供大量的資源，以便能與美國和歐洲的頂級學府一爭高下。注意抓住題干中的關鍵信息emerging economies、resources和me elite of America and Europe。文中D段第四句提到，新興經濟體，尤其是中國，傾注了眾多資源來建設能與美國和歐洲的頂級學府一爭高下的大學。由此可見，題干是對原文的同義轉述，故答案為D。